Losing Streak Probability - N Consecutive Losses

Risk disclaimer

Simplified independence model; real losing streaks cluster. Not a precise forecast.

Even with a decent win rate, streaks appear given enough trades; knowing the odds supports psychology and sizing plans.

The model assumes independence; real markets cluster losses, so treat it as intuition.

Win 50%, N=6 → 0.5⁶ ≈ 1.56%.

At 40% win rate the same streak rises to ≈4.67% — longer streaks get common as win rate falls.

Is this a specific N in a row?

Yes — the chance any given N consecutive trades are all losses. For “at least once in a window” you need a sliding estimate.

Pair with the risk-of-ruin and expectancy calculators.

Calculate suggested position quantity from account balance, risk percentage, entry price and stop loss to keep per-trade risk under control.

Compute the risk-reward ratio plus risk and reward distances from entry, stop loss and take profit prices.

Derive the stop-loss trigger price for long or short positions from entry price, quantity and the maximum acceptable loss.

Derive the take-profit trigger price for long or short positions from entry price, quantity and target profit.

Estimate the liquidation price for long/short positions in isolated or cross margin from entry price, quantity, leverage and maintenance margin rate.

Use the Kelly criterion with win rate and payoff ratio to find the growth-optimal fraction of bankroll to risk.