Value at Risk (VaR) Calculator
Enter position value, daily volatility, a confidence z-score and days to estimate the potential loss at a given confidence level (VaR).
Results
Fill in the inputs and click Calculate.
- VaR (%)
- –
- VaR (Amount)
- –
Risk disclaimer
VaR is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Crypto has fat tails and correlation breaks — pair it with stress thinking.
What is VaR?
Value at Risk answers “how much could I lose in the worst case at a given confidence”. Common z values: 1.65 for 95%, 2.33 for 99%.
Under a normal assumption: VaR = z × daily vol % × √days × position value.
How to use
- Enter position (account) value.
- Enter daily volatility (e.g. 2%).
- Pick the z-score for your confidence (default 1.65), set days and click Calculate.
Formula
- VaR % = z × daily vol % × √days
- VaR amount = position value × VaR %
Example
Value 10,000, daily 2%, z=1.65 → 1-day VaR 3.3% ≈ 330 USDT: with 95% confidence the daily loss stays below it.
Holding 4 days → VaR ≈ 6.6% ≈ 660 USDT (volatility scales by √days).
FAQ
Does VaR guarantee the loss?
No. The normal assumption understates tails; gaps and liquidity dry-ups can far exceed VaR.