At-Least Win Probability Calculator
From a per-trade win rate and N (≤50), compute the binomial probability of at least X wins.
Results
Fill in the inputs and click Calculate.
- Prob. of ≥X Wins
- –
- Expected Wins
- –
Risk disclaimer
An i.i.d. model; loss clustering and other real features distort the numbers.
What is the binomial computing?
Each trade is an independent trial: win with probability p, so exactly-k wins in N trials follows a binomial.
This returns the cumulative chance of at least k wins and the expected wins = N×p.
How to use
- Enter the total number of trades N (1–50).
- Enter the target number of wins k.
- Enter the per-trade win rate (%).
- Click Calculate for the cumulative probability.
Formula
- P(exactly j wins) = C(N,j)·pʲ·(1−p)^(N−j)
- At least k = Σⱼ₌ₖ..N P(exactly j)
- Expected wins = N × p
Example
Win rate 60%, at least 12 wins in 20 → about 59.6%.
Assumes independent trades with a constant win rate — real trading deviates.
FAQ
Can N exceed 50?
Limited to ≤50 to keep page computation light; use a statistics tool beyond that.