Break-Even Win Rate Calculator

From the average payoff ratio (win amount ÷ loss amount), find the minimum win rate to break even over the long run.

Results

Fill in the inputs and click Calculate.

Risk disclaimer

Based on average payoff only; losing streaks and slippage are not modelled.

Why compute the break-even win rate?

High-payoff systems do not need high win rates: once the win rate exceeds 1/(1+payoff), expectancy turns positive.

Compare your real win rate with this figure to quickly spot negative-expectancy systems.

How to use

  1. Enter the average payoff ratio (e.g. 2 means winning 2× what a loss costs).
  2. Click Calculate for the required win rate.

Formula

  • Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + payoff) × 100%

Example

Payoff 2:1 → break-even win rate ≈ 33.33%; above it expectancy is positive.

Payoff 1:1 → 50%, so you need better than coin-flip.

FAQ

Do fees count?

No. For a net view, deduct costs from your average win/loss first.

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Category: PnL