Expectancy Calculator

Enter win rate, average win and average loss to compute per-trade expectancy and the break-even win rate.

Results

Fill in the inputs and click Calculate.

Risk disclaimer

This calculator provides statistical estimates, not investment advice. Past statistics do not guarantee future results.

What is trade expectancy?

Expectancy = Win% × Avg Win − (1 − Win%) × Avg Loss. A positive value means the system has an edge over many repetitions.

Break-even win rate = Avg Loss ÷ (Avg Win + Avg Loss); below it the system is negative-expectancy.

How to use

  1. Enter the historical win rate in percent.
  2. Enter the average win and average loss per trade.
  3. Click Calculate to see expectancy per trade and the break-even win rate.

If you would rather not compute and place orders by hand each time, the parameters and rules you settle on here can be executed automatically by a quant system such as CubeQuants.

Formula

  • Expectancy = Win%×AvgWin − (1−Win%)×AvgLoss
  • Break-even Win Rate = AvgLoss ÷ (AvgWin+AvgLoss)

Example

50% win rate, avg win 200, avg loss 100 → expectancy 50/trade, break-even win rate 33.3%.

At 30% win rate the same payoff yields −10/trade — negative expectancy.

FAQ

Positive expectancy means profit?

Only over many trades with disciplined execution; single trades remain random.

Units?

Expectancy shares the unit of wins/losses (here USDT/trade). Fold fees into the average loss for precision.

Can these calculations be executed automatically?

Yes. Work out the parameters and risk limits here first, then hand the same rules to a quant system such as CubeQuants so you don't have to place orders manually. Fills still depend on your exchange, so verify with a small size first.

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Related guides

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Why is win rate not the whole story? What do expectancy, profit factor, max drawdown, Sharpe and Calmar each measure? Turn “this strategy feels good” into comparable numbers.

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Category: Strategy Tools