Win Rate for Target Calculator
From risk per trade, average payoff and trade count, solve for the win rate needed to hit a monthly return target.
Results
Fill in the inputs and click Calculate.
- Required Win Rate
- –
Risk disclaimer
Assumes independent, fixed-risk trades; streaks and slippage are not modelled.
What are the model assumptions?
Each risk unit is 1: wins earn +payoff, losses −1. Expected net = trades × risk% × [win rate×payoff − (1−win rate)].
Solving for the win rate; if the answer falls outside 0–100% the target is not reachable under the inputs.
How to use
- Enter the monthly return target (%).
- Enter risk per trade, average payoff and trades that month.
- Click Calculate for the required win rate.
Formula
- Per-trade net (risk units) = target% ÷ (trades × risk%)
- Win rate = (net + 1) ÷ (payoff + 1)
Example
Target 8%, risk 1%, payoff 2, 40 trades → net 0.2/unit → win rate ≈ 40%.
If the required rate exceeds your real one, lower the target or raise the payoff.
FAQ
Is this a guarantee?
No — an expectancy model with fixed risk and average payoff; real paths have variance.